Earthquake Predictions

Lalit A Patel

No seismological laboratory could predict the earthquake of 26 January 2001 centered at Bhuj in Gujarat in India. Likewise, seismological laboratories could not predict most of the other earthquakes elsewhere in the past. Maybe because the methods used by seismological laboratories are not meant to be predictive in nature. If so, how to predict earthquakes?

Seismology is confined to mechanical vibrations. Mechanical vibrations are the end result, and not the root cause. For the method to be predictive, it should deal with the root cause or at least intermediate effects. It may be impractical to deal with the root cause of earthquakes. But it may be possible to deal with intermediate effects.

The root cause of earthquakes is intense thermal activities at the core of the earth. Intermediate effects of these thermal activities are thermo-mechanical changes on the surface of the earth. Such thermo-mechanical changes include softening of the earth’s crust, widening of the desert area, drying of internal water streams, drying of trees, etc.

Bhuj is within a desert area. And this desert has been widening. In nearby places, the sand thickness keeps increasing and water wells are drying up. If we had analyzed this pattern, we could have foreseen the earthquake around Bhuj.

By noticing the speed of such thermo-mechanical changes on the surface of the earth, we can foresee earthquakes. By measuring their acceleration, we can predict an earthquake.